The Scissortail Brief | July 13–19, 2026

Happy Oshkosh week, BizAv family. EAA AirVenture kicked off today at Wittman Regional, and even though it's not a business aviation show, it's one of the best weeks on the entire aviation calendar and is certainly something to celebrate regardless of what you fly. I wish I could attend this year, but I’m stuck in the Texas heat.

Beyond that: large-cabin Part 91 flying kept declining in June while fractional large-cabin activity surged 13.3%. GPS jamming rose 67% year over year, and spoofing rose 193%, and Honeywell Aerospace, now an independent public company after its spin-off, is shipping a new navigation system in response. Embraer launched the Phenom 300EV with the largest business jet application yet of Garmin Emergency Autoland. Spain beat Argentina 1-0 in extra time to win the World Cup yesterday at MetLife. FBO Jet-A held flat, but crude oil is climbing fast as the Iran ceasefire's collapse escalates further. And Farnborough opens today across the pond.

Calendar: Happy Oshkosh Week

EAA AirVenture Oshkosh opened today at Wittman Regional Airport and runs through July 26. If you've never been, it's the largest fly-in in the world, hundreds of thousands of people, tens of thousands of aircraft, and a week where the entire aviation community, from homebuilders to airline pilots to bizav operators, shows up to one field in Wisconsin because they love flying. It's not our segment of the industry, but it's everyone's favorite flying week.

The week didn't start with clear skies. Smoke from hundreds of wildfires burning across Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and northern Minnesota settled over northeast Wisconsin starting July 15, dropping visibility to around one mile at times and pushing air quality into the "very unhealthy" category across roughly half the state, Oshkosh included. On Thursday, July 16, VFR arrivals into Wittman weren't possible. The field was IFR-only, and IFR arrival slots, which require an FAA reservation, were fully booked. EAA Chairman and CEO Jack Pelton told Aviation Week the smoke was worse than prior years' Canadian wildfire haze: "This one really is different. It's thicker than the ones in the past. You can taste it." Conditions improved by midday Friday as winds shifted, and NOAA's longer-range outlook doesn't call for widespread smoke returning, though EAA has cautioned another wind shift could bring it back while the fires continue to burn.

EAA's guidance to inbound pilots has been consistent all week: fly your own minimums, don't push weather to make the show, and be prepared for possible diversions given both the smoke and the volume of arriving traffic.

NBAA has its usual presence at AirVenture this year, the association's familiar white tent near the flight line in Tent 432, along with Booth #672. NBAA uses the week to connect with the broader GA and homebuilt community, run panel discussions on topics like careers in aviation and industry sustainability, and promote the fall NBAA-BACE convention. It's a lower-key showing than NBAA's own event, but it's been a fixture on the AirVenture exhibitor list for years.

If you're headed up to Oshkosh this week, fly safe, watch that smoke forecast, and enjoy it. This is a fun week to be a pilot or aviation nerd like yours truly.

Traffic: The Large-Cabin Split

ARGUS and WingX released June and H1 2026 flight activity data this week. Global activity rose 3.4% year over year in June, per ARGUS, with North America up 2.2%. WingX put North American activity through mid-July at 3.9% ahead of 2025, with H1 2026 up 3.5% over H1 2025.

Fractional operations drove most of North America's gain, up 10.4% year over year in June. Part 135 charter grew 2%. Part 91 owner-flown activity declined 1.1%, continuing a trend that has held most of the year. Large cabin jets were the only aircraft category to decline overall, down 3.3% for the month. Part 91 large-cabin activity fell 7.1%. Part 135 large-cabin fell 3.4%.

Within the fractional segment, large jets posted the largest gain of any category tracked: up 13.3% in June, up 18.4% in May.

ARGUS Senior VP Travis Kuhn: "There continues to be some erosion of demand in the large cabin market and it doesn't appear as though that will change anytime soon. On the positive side, fractional activity continues to remain incredibly resilient with double digit yearly growth."

Kuhn said the number to watch for the rest of 2026 is whether Part 91 large-cabin activity keeps sliding while fractional keeps climbing. That gap is what moves resale inventory and pricing.

Safety: GPS Jamming and Spoofing

Reported GPS jamming incidents rose 67% from 2024 to 2025, per the IATA 2025 Safety Report. Spoofing incidents, in which an aircraft's receiver tracks a counterfeit signal as genuine, rose 193% over the same period.

Honeywell's Ben Mohr, director of offering management for alternative precision navigation, said the problem is concentrated in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and parts of Africa, though the range of jamming and spoofing systems increasingly affects commercial and business aircraft that were never the intended target.

Honeywell's response is a software-based navigation platform called HANA. It draws on whatever sensors an aircraft already has, including low-earth-orbit satellite connections where available. LEO satellites orbit at 400 to 1,200 miles, versus roughly 12,000 miles for GPS satellites, producing stronger signals that are harder to jam or spoof. Honeywell is also developing radar terrain-aided navigation and magnetic anomaly navigation as additional inputs.

The FAA's GPS/GNSS Interference Resource Guide, Version 1.1, remains the standard reference for pilot procedures in a disrupted environment.

Industry: Honeywell Aerospace Goes Independent

Honeywell Aerospace began trading as a standalone public company on Nasdaq under the ticker HONA on June 29, completing its spin-off from the former Honeywell International, which continues on as Honeywell Technologies under the ticker HON. Honeywell shareholders of record as of June 15 received one share of Honeywell Aerospace for every two shares of the parent company they held.

Honeywell Aerospace launches with more than 36,000 employees and over 10,000 customers worldwide, covering avionics, navigation, engines, power systems, and aircraft control businesses, the pieces of Honeywell that touch business aviation directly. HONA shares opened above their prior when-issued price and traded as high as $238.19 on debut day. The HANA navigation system described above, and everything else Honeywell ships into bizav cockpits, now comes from this newly independent company rather than a division of a larger industrial conglomerate.

For operators and MROs with existing Honeywell service agreements, warranty programs, or parts relationships, the spin-off shouldn't change day-to-day operations. It does mean a new entity and new SEC filings, worth knowing the next time a Honeywell contract or purchase order crosses your desk.

OEM: Embraer Launches Phenom 300EV

Embraer unveiled the Phenom 300EV on July 14, the third generation of its best-selling light jet, with deliveries planned for 2028 and a list price of $13.995 million.

The headline feature is Garmin Emergency Autoland, which makes the 300EV the largest business jet certified with the system. A passenger can activate it with a single button press if the pilot becomes incapacitated. The system evaluates weather, terrain, fuel reserves, and nearby airports, communicates with ATC, navigates to the selected airport, and lands the aircraft. Emergency Autoland has previously appeared on lighter aircraft, including the Piper M600 SLS, Cirrus Vision Jet, and Daher TBM 940. This is its first application on an aircraft this size.

The 300EV also adds autobrake, described by Embraer as exclusive within the light jet class, a new Multi-Purpose Electronic Controller integrating rudder-by-wire, an upgraded Garmin G3000 Prodigy Touch suite with 3D taxiway routing and runway occupancy alerts, RNP AR 0.3 capability, and an inertial reference system. Range increases to 2,055 nautical miles, up from the current Phenom 300E, with roughly 430 additional pounds of payload capacity. Cabin updates include factory-installed Gogo Galileo connectivity and a vacuum lavatory.

Embraer delivered 72 Phenom 300s in 2025, and the 300 family has been the best-selling light jet for 14 consecutive years. Certification testing is complete and Embraer expects triple certification from U.S., European, and Brazilian regulators later this year, with deliveries beginning in 2028.

For a client weighing a new Phenom 300E purchase against waiting for the EV, the answer comes down to timeline. The EV isn't certified yet and won't deliver for two more years. If a client needs the aircraft now, the 300E remains a well-proven, in-production jet. If they can wait, and safety technology or the added range and payload matter to them, the EV is worth putting on the table before they sign on the outgoing model.

Traffic: World Cup Final

Spain beat Argentina 1-0 in extra time yesterday at MetLife Stadium on a Ferran Torres goal, winning their second World Cup and denying Lionel Messi what was likely his last shot at the trophy.

MetLife hosted eight matches this tournament, more than any other venue. Teterboro operated under PPR throughout the week, with its 100,000-pound weight restriction the binding constraint for larger aircraft. Morristown, Westchester, and Republic served as overflow and ran tight all week. There was no general fan parking at MetLife and no walking in from public roads; rail was the only way in for spectators. Newark Liberty, 12 miles from the stadium, saw the heaviest volume of international arrivals through the weekend.

Fuel: Crude Is Climbing Again

The national average for Jet-A across 3,212 reporting FBOs is $7.45 per gallon as of July 18, per GlobalAir, flat with the prior week. The Central region is lowest at $6.68. Alaska is highest at $9.08. SAF sits at a national average of $9.46.

Crude oil isn't holding flat. Brent crude rose above $87 a barrel on Friday, July 17, its highest level in a month and up more than 4% in a single day, after Kuwait said Iran struck one of its power and desalination facilities. WTI moved similarly, trading in the low-to-mid $80s. Oil prices are now up nearly 30% from their July lows.

The driver is the collapse of the ceasefire we reported two weeks ago. The U.S. has carried out six consecutive nights of strikes against Iranian military sites. Iran has retaliated with attacks on U.S. targets in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and Syria, and has instructed Houthi forces to prepare to disrupt Red Sea shipping if the U.S. targets Iranian power infrastructure. Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains largely limited, and the U.S. reinstated its naval blockade of Iranian ports earlier this week.

FBO retail pricing has not yet caught up to this move. Wholesale typically leads retail by several weeks, and this week's escalation is recent enough that it hasn't fully worked through the supply chain to the pump. If the conflict continues at its current intensity, expect the recent stability in FBO pricing to end, with wholesale numbers moving first and retail following into August.

Across the Pond: Farnborough Opens Today

The Farnborough International Airshow opens today and runs through July 24. More than 1,400 exhibitors and over 100,000 visitors are expected. The commercial-to-defense exhibitor split, traditionally 60/40, is shifting closer to 50/50.

The combined Airbus and Boeing backlog stands at roughly 16,000 to 17,000 aircraft, which has shifted analyst attention from order totals toward delivery slot allocation and supply chain execution. Dassault, Embraer, and the engine manufacturers are expected to hold press conferences on the opening two days.

TAG Farnborough Airport has restricted general aviation slots for show week since early in the year. Biggin Hill, Northolt, and Oxford Kidlington remain the standard diversionary airports.

That's The Brief

Happy Oshkosh week, and safe travels to anyone flying up there this week. The large-cabin ownership-versus-fractional split has been building for months and now has enough data behind it to shape acquisition conversations. GPS jamming and spoofing numbers jumped sharply, and OEMs are shipping technology rather than issuing guidance alone, with Honeywell now doing that work as a standalone company. Embraer's Phenom 300EV is a real data point for anyone weighing a light jet purchase against a 2028 delivery window. Spain won the World Cup. Crude oil is rising fast on renewed Iran conflict, and FBO pricing hasn't caught up yet, watch that closely over the next few weeks. And Farnborough opens today.

The Week in One Sentence: EAA AirVenture Oshkosh opened under wildfire smoke that grounded early VFR arrivals, ARGUS and WingX confirmed large-cabin Part 91 flying continues to decline while large-cabin fractional activity surged 13.3% in June, GPS jamming rose 67% and spoofing rose 193% year over year with newly independent Honeywell Aerospace shipping a LEO-satellite-based navigation system in response, Embraer launched the Phenom 300EV with the largest-yet application of Garmin Emergency Autoland, Spain beat Argentina 1-0 in extra time to win the World Cup Final at MetLife yesterday, FBO Jet-A held flat at $7.45 nationally even as Brent crude surged above $87 a barrel on renewed U.S.-Iran strikes and Hormuz disruption, and Farnborough opens today as what's expected to be the largest edition in its history.