The Scissortail Brief | July 27 – August 2, 2026

The Q2 earnings season arrived this week, with Gulfstream and Textron offering contrasting perspectives on the ongoing supply squeeze. Meanwhile, Chris Rocheleau is stepping down as the FAA deputy administrator just a week after introducing Mobile Clearance at Oshkosh to rejoin the NBAA. The competitive race between Gulfstream and Bombardier saw a speed record change hands twice over a ten-day period. Additionally, IADA released its Q2 pre-owned market metrics, oil experienced its highest volatility since the outbreak of the war, and fuel prices at U.S. FBOs continued their upward trajectory.

Rocheleau Leaves FAA, Returns to NBAA as COO

Chris Rocheleau, the FAA's deputy administrator, announced July 30 that he's leaving the agency and returning to NBAA as chief operating officer, a role he previously held from 2022 to January 2025.

Rocheleau was named acting FAA administrator by President Trump on January 30, 2025, the day after the midair collision between a U.S. Army helicopter and a PSA Airlines regional jet near Reagan National that killed 67 people. He led the agency through the aftermath of that accident, the transition to Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, and the arrival of Bryan Bedford as permanent administrator in July 2025. He stayed on as deputy administrator under Bedford, where he helped advance the Brand New Air Traffic Control System modernization effort, the MOSAIC rule reshaping light-sport aircraft certification, and the FAA's eVTOL integration pilot program.

His last official act for the FAA was representing Administrator Bedford at the "Meet the Administrator" session at AirVenture last week, where he suggested the 2030 deadline for the transition to unleaded avgas might slip. Days later, he unveiled Mobile Clearance, the digital IFR clearance tool covered in last week's Brief, in what turned out to be one of his final public appearances in the role.

NBAA President and CEO Ed Bolen: "We are thrilled to welcome Chris back to NBAA, where he will build upon his record of success in leading a senior team charged with ensuring that the organization delivers excellence to the business aviation community. His deep commitment to service, his strategic approach to organizational management and his trusted relationships with top leaders throughout government and industry uniquely qualify him for this important role at NBAA."

FAA General Counsel Liam McKenna will serve as acting deputy administrator following Rocheleau's departure. For an association that spends much of its time working the regulatory side of Washington, having a COO who just spent 18 months inside the FAA's senior leadership, on the exact modernization programs that will define how aircraft get certified and flown for the next decade, is a genuine advantage most trade groups don't have.

Gulfstream and Textron Post Divergent Q2 Results

This week's second-quarter financial reports from Gulfstream and Textron present divergent trends, offering contrasting implications for buyers navigating the new and pre-owned aircraft markets.

General Dynamics' Aerospace segment, Gulfstream, booked $5.3 billion in new orders during Q2 against the revenue it recognized, a book-to-bill ratio of roughly 1.5 to 1. The segment posted $3.53 billion in revenue at a 14.5% operating margin, with 35 large-cabin and six mid-cabin aircraft delivered in the quarter. Companywide backlog closed at $136.5 billion. Gulfstream's sales in the first half of 2026 are the highest since 2022.

In contrast, Textron reported flatter performance. The company outperformed expectations, reporting adjusted earnings of $1.62 per share and a 3% increase in revenue to $3.8 billion, yet its Aviation division saw jet deliveries drop to 40 from 49 in the same quarter last year. Textron experienced a 3% decline in segment profit to $165 million despite a 1% increase in revenue to $1.5 billion, driven by lower jet volume and manufacturing inefficiencies, though partially offset by reduced warranty expenses. Conversely, commercial turboprop deliveries trended upward, rising from 34 to 44 as King Air market entries surpassed Citations' during the quarter.

The convergence of these two narratives becomes evident in the pre-owned market. According to IADA's Q2 report published on July 27, the first half of 2026 saw 746 closed pre-owned transactions, a 21% increase year-over-year, paired with the lowest number of price cuts recorded since tracking began in 2023. Industry professionals link this highly competitive and stable pre-owned landscape to protracted lead times for new aircraft and extensive manufacturer backlogs. With two major OEMs reporting identical supply limitations within the same week, it’s clear where immediate buyers will shift their focus. Used G550 and G650 models are identified as the primary aircraft to monitor, and this demand is expected to extend to comparable large-cabin pre-owned options from competing manufacturers.

Gulfstream Retakes the LA-to-Farnborough Speed Record

Gulfstream's G700 reclaimed the Los Angeles-to-Farnborough speed record from Bombardier's Global 8000 on July 30, flying the 4,740-nautical-mile route in 8 hours and 27 minutes, 19 minutes faster than the Global 8000's run on July 20.

The record was held by Bombardier for exactly 10 days. With a pace 3.6% quicker than the Global 8000, which had previously reduced the prior record by 2.2%, the G700 delivered a notable performance. While a 19-minute variance on a single city pair rarely prompts a fleet replacement, the true competition unfolds at the next level among ultra-long-range flagship models. Bombardier’s Global 8000 boasts the moniker of the "world"s fastest civil aircraft" at Mach 0.95, whereas Gulfstream’s G800 counters with sustained capability rather than isolated speed bursts. In June, the G800 achieved Gulfstream’s 800th city-pair speed record, which was subsequently followed by the longest and swiftest flight documented in business aviation history: an 8,303-nautical-mile journey from Melbourne to Moline completed in 16 hours and 56 minutes. Since its introduction last August, the G800 has secured 15 speed records, contributing to a total of 815 speed records established across the Gulfstream fleet so far. Meanwhile, the Global 8000, which entered service in December 2025, is working to close the gap, initiating its own sequence of city-pair achievements starting with a Montreal-to-Nice flight on June 5.

Separately, GlobalAir reported the Cessna Citation CJ3 Gen3 completed its first flight this week, putting all three next-generation Citation light jets in flight test ahead of a targeted 2027 service entry.

Oil Posts Biggest Monthly Gain Since March as Two Chokepoints Stay Under Threat

Brent crude and WTI both logged their strongest monthly gains since March in July, Brent up roughly 24% and WTI up about 21%, even after a volatile week that saw prices swing more than $8 in both directions.

The month closed with the war entering its 36th day of the current escalation. Iran has largely blocked shipping through the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict resumed. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said Friday they stopped two tankers attempting to transit Hormuz under U.S. military escort and forced four others to change course. Traffic through the strait remains sparse but not zero: two very large crude carriers exited the strait Friday, per Kpler data.

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, at the southern end of the Red Sea, has become the second front. Iran's Houthi allies in Yemen declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia in mid-July and attacked two Saudi very large crude carriers near the strait on July 25. Saudi Arabia temporarily suspended shipments through the passage before resuming. Traffic has been recovering since: 25 vessels transited on one Thursday despite the embargo, and 29 commodity vessels passed through the following Thursday.

Crude prices continue to react sharply to breaking headlines. Earlier in the week, optimistic outlooks for de-escalation drove a weekly decline of more than 5%. However, this trend reversed on Friday after Iran announced it had targeted two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing WTI to close at $84.67 and Brent at $90.12. Commenting on the shift, Ole Hvalbye of SEB Research noted, "The market has stopped trading the war and started trading the shipping data."

An unidentified drone caused a fire on two vessels at Egypt's Mediterranean port of Damietta this week, more than 100 miles from the Suez Canal. No one has claimed responsibility. Iran denied involvement. The Suez Canal and the Sumed pipeline have so far continued to offer functioning northbound routes for Saudi energy exports, the one piece of regional maritime infrastructure that hasn't come under direct threat.

U.S. domestic supply is reinforcing the price pressure. EIA data this week showed U.S. commercial crude stockpiles fell to their lowest level since 2018. Talks between Iran and Oman on joint management of the Strait of Hormuz are ongoing, though Tehran has so far rejected Oman's specific proposal. A Reuters poll of analysts projects Brent will average $85.22 per barrel for all of 2026, a figure set before this week's renewed volatility.

Fuel: Another Increase at the Pump

The national average for Jet-A across 3,213 reporting FBOs is $7.70 per gallon as of August 1, per GlobalAir, up from $7.62 the prior week. The Central region remains lowest at $6.96. Alaska remains highest at $9.16. SAF is averaging $9.94 nationally. The national average for 100LL is $7.48.

The May monthly average, adjusted for inflation, already exceeded every month on record from 2022, the last time fuel prices ran this hot. The trend through the summer has been intermittent plateaus followed by fresh increases, tracking the Middle East news cycle more closely than any seasonal pattern.

With both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb contested simultaneously and Iran-Oman talks over joint strait management still unresolved, operators should continue planning around an elevated fuel baseline rather than expecting a near-term return to pre-February pricing.

Weather Brief: Dangerous Heat Continues Across the West

The following is sourced from NWS Weather Prediction Center and Climate Prediction Center discussions issued August 1.

Extreme fire weather risk is in effect today over the northern Intermountain West, particularly from northern Oregon into central Washington, with winds locally reaching 75 mph combined with single-digit relative humidity from downsloping dry air. Strong to severe thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are expected to move through the Ohio Valley this afternoon and evening.

A dangerous heat wave continues across much of the West and is expected to persist through much of next week, primarily across the Southwest and Intermountain West. A cold front will bring cooler air through the Northwest and northern Plains early in the week, but excessive heat will persist and gradually spread northeast into the central Rockies and Plains as the upper ridge re-intensifies, potentially extending east across the South as it links with subtropical Atlantic ridging late in the week.

The CPC's 6-10 day outlook, valid August 3-7, favors above-normal temperatures across most of the contiguous U.S., with the highest probabilities centered on California, the Great Basin, the Desert Southwest, and the central and southern Rockies. NOAA's updated August outlook widened the above-normal temperature zone to cover much of the lower 48, with the highest odds now centered on Texas, Oklahoma, and the California coast.

For Texas operators: Texas and Oklahoma now carry the highest odds nationally of a hotter-than-normal August. Build performance planning into every departure from a shorter runway through the month.

That's The Brief

The Week in One Sentence: Chris Rocheleau left the FAA to return to NBAA as COO a week after unveiling Mobile Clearance at Oshkosh, Gulfstream and Textron reported divergent Q2 results with Gulfstream's book-to-bill running 1.5x and Textron's jet deliveries falling to 40 from 49, Gulfstream reclaimed the LA-to-Farnborough speed record from Bombardier after holding it just ten days, oil posted its biggest monthly gain since March as both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb remained under threat, FBO Jet-A rose to $7.70 nationally, and NOAA widened its above-normal temperature outlook for August with Texas and Oklahoma now carrying the highest odds in the country.