The Scissortail Brief | June 22–28, 2026

Four months into a conflict that upended how operators plan and price trips, fuel prices are finally moving in the right direction in a sustained way. The NTSB still hasn't published the preliminary report on the Laredo crash, which tells you something about how complex the investigation is. The FAA proposed a long-overdue overhaul of its aircraft certification standards. And the World Cup's opening two weeks gave us real traffic data on how the tournament is actually moving private aviation demand across the host cities. Spoiler: it's not where you'd expect.

Safety: Laredo Investigation — No Preliminary Report Yet

As of this writing, the NTSB has not released a preliminary report on the June 16 NetJets Citation Latitude crash on Loop 20 in Laredo. That's now twelve days since the accident. The NTSB typically publishes a preliminary report within 30 days and, in major accidents, often within two weeks. The absence of a release doesn't signal anything specific about the cause, but it does indicate that the investigation has not even reached the early factual-framing stage publicly.

What the investigation community and the pilots' forums focus on is the dual-engine power-loss question. The Citation Latitude has a certified range of approximately 2,700 nautical miles. The Cabo-to-Austin leg is roughly 1,200 nautical miles. On a flight that short relative to the aircraft's capability, a crew reporting low fuel and a power loss so close to the airport points to something other than fuel exhaustion as the sole cause. A bird strike that causes compressor damage to one or both engines is one theory circulating. Fuel contamination affecting both engines late in the flight is another. The FDR and CVR are in Washington and have been analyzed. The crew has provided statements, which the NTSB can compel under 49 CFR 830.15. The factual record the board is building in Washington is well ahead of what's been published. The preliminary report, when it comes, will be the first public glimpse into what the data shows.

Regulatory: FAA Proposes Part 25 Certification Modernization

On June 26, the FAA published a notice of proposed rulemaking to modernize aircraft certification standards for transport category airplanes and propulsion systems under 14 CFR Part 25. Comments are due August 25.

The proposal's core intent is to reduce the number of exemptions, special conditions, and equivalent level of safety findings that manufacturers must obtain when certifying new aircraft designs. Under the current system, when an existing rule doesn't fit a novel design feature, manufacturers have to work through time-consuming case-by-case findings before the certification basis is settled. The NPRM would codify many of those frequently issued exceptions directly into the regulation, so they don't have to be relitigated each time.

A second major objective is harmonization with EASA's CS-25 standards. The proposal would eliminate 27 differences between FAA and EASA requirements, under which U.S. manufacturers must currently satisfy both sets of rules independently. Since manufacturers who sell to both the U.S. and European markets already design to both standards, aligning them reduces duplicative engineering analysis without changing the safety outcome.

Specific items in the NPRM: removal of SFAR No. 109's executive interior requirements and their codification into new Part 25 sections, new definitions for low-occupancy and non-commercially operated airplanes, updates to emergency exit marking and lighting, cabin layout standards, lavatory fire protection, medical stretcher requirements, and oxygen outlet specifications. The proposal also addresses power lever movement on propeller-powered transport airplanes and thrust reverser systems on turbojets.

For the bizav OEM market, this is a certification process story. The Falcon 10X, the G800, and any future clean-sheet program navigate the same Part 25 process. Faster, less expensive certification doesn't change what gets built, but it reduces the time and cost to get a new design into service, which adds up when programs are already measured in years and billions.

Fuel: The Biggest Weekly Drop Since February

The fuel picture this week is the clearest sign yet that the Iran MOU is producing real market effects.

The global average jet fuel price fell 14.2% week-over-week to $119.17 per barrel on the wholesale market, per IATA data. That's the largest single-week wholesale decline since the Hormuz disruption began in late February. The sustained downward movement at the wholesale level over the past three weeks suggests markets are genuinely pricing in improved Hormuz access, rather than merely reacting to the announcement.

At the retail FBO level, the national average as of June 27 is $7.59 per gallon across 3,214 reporting FBOs, per GlobalAir. That's down from $7.71 the prior week and $7.80 the week before that. The Central region is lowest at $6.65. Alaska is highest at $9.08.

To put the decline in context: the national FBO average peaked at approximately $8.63 in April. At $7.59 today, operators are paying roughly $1.04 less per gallon than the peak, or about 12% below the high. Year-over-year, prices are still up significantly. But the trajectory has clearly turned.

The caveat from last week still applies. The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire remains fragile, and the 60-day negotiation window between the U.S. and Iran has roughly seven weeks left. If the situation deteriorates, wholesale prices will reverse before retail does. Operators planning fall budgets should model a range, not a single number.

Traffic: World Cup Week Two — Smaller Markets, Bigger Surges

WingX published its first real data on World Cup bizav traffic patterns through June 22, and the standout finding is where the surges are happening.

Across the 16 host cities for the period June 11-22, WingX compared private jet activity on match days (plus the day before and after each match) to typical daily activity. The largest surges are in smaller markets, not the major hubs. Seattle roughly doubled its normal daily activity for the USA vs. Australia match on June 19. Mexico City saw activity run about 1.7 times normal for the tournament-opening game at Estadio Azteca. Large metros like New York and Los Angeles are seeing the extra jets blend into already busy daily operations.

WingX analyst Nick Koscinski: "As expected, the World Cup is bringing in a surge of bizjet traffic to nearby airports of the host cities. Although the smaller markets are seeing a much more sizeable surge in traffic, whereas large metros like New York or LA see the extra jets just blend into an already busy month."

The practical implication is that the infrastructure stress points aren't Teterboro and Van Nuys right now. They're the secondary airports serving smaller host cities that don't have the daily throughput to absorb match-day spikes without feeling them. That picture changes as the tournament progresses into the knockout rounds and the matches concentrate in fewer, larger venues. MetLife and the Final are still six weeks out.

North American bizav departures year-to-date continue to track ahead of 2025. The large-cabin softness that's been a recurring theme held through the most recent published weekly data.

Weather Brief: Lower 48 Outlook

Summer is in full effect across the Lower 48 and the pattern heading into next week reflects it.

The dominant feature is heat. Above-normal temperatures are forecast across the central and eastern U.S. through at least the first week of July, with the most anomalous heat concentrated in the southern Plains and the Gulf Coast states. Texas is looking at multiple days with high temperatures exceeding 100 degrees through the coming week, with higher heat index values in the state's more humid eastern portion.

The convective pattern follows the heat. Daily afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity is the operating environment from the Texas coast through the Mississippi Valley and into the Southeast. Individual cells are capable of severe weather, and the pattern supports slow-moving storms that can produce training rainfall, flash flooding, and extended convective periods into the overnight hours. IFR and low-IMC conditions in the mornings are common ahead of the daily convective cycle in humid areas.

The northern Plains and upper Midwest are relatively quiet with seasonal temperatures. The Pacific Northwest is warm and dry following the recent heat event. The West Coast is in its typical June gloom pattern, with marine stratus burning off by midday at most coastal airports.

For operators flying in the southern and central U.S. corridor through next week: build extra fuel, carry a solid alternate, and plan departures for the early morning window before the daily convective cycle fires. The late afternoon and evening hours from Texas to the Carolinas are where the weather briefer earns his keep this time of year.

That's The Brief

Fuel is coming down in a sustained way for the first time since February. The Laredo preliminary report hasn't been published yet, which means the investigation is still in its factual development phase and we'll have more to report in coming weeks. The Part 25 NPRM is a process-efficiency story that plays out over years, not weeks. Still, it's the right direction for a certification framework that has accumulated decades of patchwork fixes. And the World Cup traffic data confirms what experienced operators already knew: the planning pressure for smaller host-city airports is real, and it builds from here as the knockout rounds approach.

The Week in One Sentence: The NTSB Laredo preliminary report has not yet published as investigators work through the dual engine power loss question, the FAA proposed a significant overhaul of Part 25 aircraft certification standards to reduce exemptions and align with EASA, FBO Jet-A dropped to a national average of $7.59 per gallon as wholesale prices fell 14.2% week-over-week on sustained Hormuz access, and World Cup traffic data shows smaller host-city markets like Seattle doubling normal daily bizjet activity while major metros absorb the extra traffic without strain.