The Scissortail Brief | August 10–16, 2026

The sign in front of El Arroyo, the Austin Tex-Mex joint famous for its jocularity, read “It’s hot outside, remember to drink plenty of liquids, and stay indoors from 10 AM to November 2nd.” This edition is all about heat…

This past week, Los Angeles County confirmed it's using your ADS-B data to build a property tax base, NBAA is fighting a parallel privacy battle over the federal aircraft registry, Embraer posted its best-ever second quarter, the traffic data can't decide if bizav is speeding up or slowing down, LEO connectivity keeps expanding, fuel climbed again, and North Texas is under a Heat Advisory hot enough to melt the tarmac.

So grab a cool one and plant yourself in front of a fan, double-check your density altitude, and read on. This first story might make your blood boil if the afternoon high hasn’t already…

L.A. County Is Using ADS-B Data to Find Taxable Aircraft

Los Angeles County is putting the heat on transient private aircraft owners. Tax Assessor Jeff Prang confirmed his office is using ADS-B tracking data to identify aircraft that may owe local property tax, and the numbers are large enough to notice. Prang told Fox News his office has identified over 1,000 aircraft with a combined assessed value north of $4 billion, representing a potential $40 million tax base at California's 1% rate.

Here's how it works for anyone flying into California regularly. Aircraft there are taxable based on where they're primarily located and operated, not where they're registered, which means an out-of-state owner can get assessed if the airplane spends enough time in the county. Aviation Tax Consultants says the threshold the county has applied in practice is as little as 20 overnights at a county airport in a year. Nearly 1,000 notices have gone out to owners across the country, many with no primary or secondary base anywhere near Los Angeles.

Prang's office launched the effort in January using what it describes as advanced aircraft discovery software that analyzes multiple data sources, though the vendor hasn't been named. The result: the county has already booked roughly $3.5 billion in newly assessed aircraft value for the 2026 tax year, on top of an earlier round that added another $2.5 billion in prior-year value. The California Pilots Association has pushed back hard. VP Eve Lopez called it a "Big Brother" approach, arguing owners never expected data collected for a federally mandated safety system to end up driving a property tax bill. Aero Law Group's analysis of the notices found that many of the cited aircraft were simply visiting, not based, in the county.

If ADS-B data can be repurposed by a county assessor's office to build a tax base, there's nothing structurally stopping other counties, in California or elsewhere, from doing the same thing. Ventura and San Diego counties are reportedly already following L.A.'s lead.

Florida and Montana have both passed laws banning airports from using ADS-B data as the billing mechanism for landing or departure fees. None of those laws touch what L.A. County is doing, which is a county tax assessor using the same data to build a property tax base entirely separate from any airport transaction. It's a different government function and a different statute.

There is a live federal effort aimed specifically at the tax question, though. Section 105 of the ALERT Act, H.R. 7613, would bar federal, state, local, and tribal government officials from using ADS-B flight-tracking data "to identify aircraft for the purpose of obtaining revenue" without the owner's consent (and I can't imagine an owner who would). That provision started as its own standalone bill, the Pilot and Aircraft Privacy Act, sponsored by Missouri Rep. Bob Onder, before getting folded into the broader ALERT Act, which passed the House 396-10 on April 14 and is now sitting in the Senate. If it becomes law as written, it would directly stop the kind of tax assessment L.A. County is doing right now, or at least using ADS-B data to do it.

It's not without a fight. The California Assessors' Association has told lawmakers the bill's language on "fees" is broad enough to reach property taxes and asked for it to be narrowed. Local tax officials argue ADS-B has become an essential tool for identifying aircraft owners who'd otherwise avoid taxes legally owed, and Alabama's Department of Revenue projected losing more than $18 million a year in that state alone if the provision passes as is. AOPA and NBAA support the language as written, arguing ADS-B was built for safety and shouldn't double as a tax enforcement tool; both associations' PACs have given more than $209,000 combined to the bill's House sponsors since 2000, a detail critics have pointed to in the debate.

NBAA Pushes Back on Aircraft Registry Data Distribution

On August 13, NBAA, along with AOPA, EAA, and Vertical Aviation International, is putting the heat on the FAA to narrowly interpret its statutory authority on distribution of aircraft registry data, as the agency works through privacy provisions in the FAA Reauthorization Act of 2024.

The groups want owner names, addresses, and similar personal information disclosed only when necessary for the registry's actual purposes, not distributed broadly by default. Since March 2025, owners have been able to request through the FAA's CARES system that their information be withheld from public display, but that requires each owner to file individually, and the agency is now weighing whether some information should be withheld more broadly instead.

NBAA Senior VP Doug Carr has framed the stakes in past NBAA commentary: the U.S. registry underpins $20-30 billion worth of aircraft transactions every year, so open access to ownership data serves a real, legitimate purpose for buyers, sellers, lenders, and title researchers. The tension NBAA is navigating is keeping that legitimate access intact while shutting down the kind of broad, low-friction data harvesting that let a county assessor's office flag a thousand aircraft nationwide without anyone's knowledge.

Across both developments, aircraft owners and operators face the same trend: federally required data originally mandated for safety monitoring or market transparency is systematically being repurposed for entirely unrelated administrative and tax-enforcement objectives.

Embraer Posts Its Best-Ever Q2, Raises Guidance

Embraer is HOT HOT HOT! The company reported record second-quarter revenue of $2.2 billion, up 23% year over year, and delivered 65 aircraft, its strongest Q2 delivery total in 16 years. Executive Aviation deliveries led growth, up 18% year-over-year to 45 jets, with revenue up 32% to $725 million.

The company's backlog reached $34.5 billion, a seventh consecutive quarterly record and up 16% year over year, with roughly $21 billion more in options that could push potential backlog above $55 billion if exercised. CEO Francisco Gomes Neto: "We delivered the strongest Q2 revenue in our history." Embraer raised its full-year adjusted EBIT margin guidance to 10.0-10.6% and its free cash flow guidance to $400 million or higher, both real increases from prior targets, while holding its 2026 delivery forecast of 160-170 executive jets.

While the headline metrics were strong, CFO commentary revealed a more nuanced picture for Executive Aviation: unit margins compressed despite top-line growth, driven by persistent supplier delivery bottlenecks that leadership expects to resolve into 2027 as production-leveling efforts mature. For buyers monitoring Phenom and Praetor delivery availability, robust backlog figures confirm that underlying demand remains solid; the primary constraint continues to be supply-side execution.

Bizjet Traffic Sends Mixed Signals Depending on the Source

With all this talk of heat, the industry might be cooling off a little overall; it depends on who you ask. WingX reported that global bizjet activity fell 2.4% year-over-year in Week 31 (July 27-August 2), marking the third consecutive weekly decline and the first such decline since late 2024. WingX analyst Nick Koscinski: "Global business jet activity fell for a third straight week, the first stretch like that since late summer 2024. Last week's weakness came out of North America, Asia, and the Mideast, while South America and Africa kept chugging along. With summer winding down, we'll be watching for bizjets to pick back up again." July year-to-date activity remains 3.2% ahead of last year, but that lead has been narrowing week over week. Regionally, South America was up 22.7% and Africa up 9.5%, while the Middle East fell 6.9% and Asia dropped 16.1%.

ARGUS, using monthly rather than weekly data, showed global activity up 5.6% year-over-year in July and 4.4% from June, with North America up 4.3% and fractional activity leading at 10%. All aircraft categories grew in North America, led by turboprops at 4.7%. European activity, however, declined for the first time since April 2025, down 1.2% year-over-year, even as it rose 4.3% month-over-month.

Weekly data catches short-term wobbles that monthly aggregates smooth over, and both are useful depending on whether you're planning next week's charter pricing or next quarter's fleet strategy. The underlying trend remains positive, but the cushion has thinned since the spring.

LEO Connectivity Keeps Expanding, with Duncan Aviation as the Latest Case Study

Low-Earth-orbit data connectivity is en fuego. Duncan Aviation has begun installing Gogo's Galileo HDX and FDX systems across its three main facilities in Lincoln, Nebraska; Battle Creek, Michigan; and Provo, Utah, marking the shift from Gogo's legacy air-to-ground network to full LEO satellite connectivity for its customer base.

Galileo runs on the Eutelsat OneWeb LEO network. The HDX antenna is compact and lightweight, delivering speeds up to 60 Mbps and installable on aircraft from light jets through large cabin. The FDX terminal targets large-cabin and ultra-long-range aircraft specifically, with consistent speeds up to 195 Mbps for passengers who expect uninterrupted streaming and video conferencing on long international legs. As of earlier this year, Gogo had 36 STCs available across 35 aircraft types for the two systems combined, with roughly 20 more expected in the first half of 2026.

Duncan Aviation's modifications sales manager Nate Klenke: "Gogo has provided reliable air-to-ground connectivity systems for years, and now Galileo allows you to have the Gogo experience around the world." Duncan has more than two decades of history installing Gogo systems, having fitted hundreds of units across more than a dozen aircraft makes and models, which makes this rollout less a new relationship than a continuation of an existing one on newer hardware.

Terrestrial air-to-ground systems don't work over oceans or remote regions, whereas LEO systems do. Anyone who flies transoceanic or into less-connected parts of the world regularly should have this conversation with their avionics shop sooner rather than later, particularly as Gogo continues to phase out legacy ATG hardware.

Fuel: Another Increase, Consistent with the Summer Trend

The temperature of fuel prices keeps on a-rising. The national average for Jet-A across 3,223 reporting FBOs is $7.73 per gallon as of August 15, per GlobalAir, up slightly from $7.70 the prior week. The Central region remains lowest at $7.00. Alaska remains highest at $9.27. SAF is averaging $9.90 nationally. The national average for 100LL is $7.50, with Alaska's 100LL running as high as $11.27.

Separately, the Aviation Research Group's monthly survey of more than 200 U.S. FBOs put the August Jet-A average at $8.31 per gallon, up 70 cents from July and up $1.70 from a year ago. The Great Lakes region saw the largest monthly increase, up 83 cents, while New England saw the smallest, up 42 cents. The Western region was most expensive at $9.09; the Central region was least expensive at $7.36.

The underlying story hasn't changed. Both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remain contested, and there's still no resolution in sight on either front. Operators should continue to plan around an elevated fuel baseline for the rest of the year.

Weather Brief: Heat Advisory Blankets North and Central Texas

Did I mention it was hot, y’all? The following is sourced from NWS Fort Worth/Dallas, NWS Houston/Galveston, NWS Austin/San Antonio, and the NWS Weather Prediction Center, all current as of today, August 17.

North Texas is under a Heat Advisory that's been expanded to cover most of North, Central, and East Texas through 8 p.m. today, with heat index values up to 108 degrees and actual temperatures between 99 and 105. NWS Fort Worth/Dallas expects unseasonably hot conditions to continue, with heat indices consistently in the 103-109 range and minimal precipitation in sight, a pattern that's likely to increase grass fire activity through at least the first half of the week. Mid-level ridging is firmly in control, with 500mb heights approaching 600dam, and little to no rainfall expected over the next seven days. Low humidity is expected to keep contributing to wildfire risk, though slightly lighter winds compared to prior days may keep that threat from becoming truly elevated.

Central Texas is running the same pattern. NWS Austin/San Antonio has daily highs in the mid-90s to near 103 degrees this week, with maximum heat index values reaching 100 to 110 degrees across most of the region. Hot and dry conditions are expected to persist through the week with no significant relief in sight.

The Gulf Coast is right behind. NWS Houston/Galveston has highs in the 90s to triple digits both today and Monday, with heat indices ranging from 101 to 108 degrees. The office's guidance is blunt: stay hydrated and take breaks indoors to cool off.

Nationally, the WPC's short-range discussion has severe thunderstorm, heavy rainfall, and flash flooding threats continuing from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic and across the central High Plains through Tuesday, tied to a large upper high stretching across the southern tier with frontal boundaries draped from the central High Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms could turn severe tonight into early Monday along the central High Plains and in a corridor from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. Dangerous heat persists across the South and Southeast while building into the Southwest early this week. Separately, Hurricane Lala is affecting Hawaii's Big Island and Maui with significant, life-threatening flash flooding, some areas reporting well over 15 inches of rainfall, and tropical storm to hurricane force winds; anyone with Hawaii operations should check the National Hurricane Center directly before planning any legs there this week.

For Texas operators: fire weather and density altitude are the operational concerns this week. Build performance planning into every departure from a shorter runway, particularly in North Texas where the Heat Advisory and elevated fire risk overlap. Watch NOTAMs for temporary flight restrictions if grass fires develop in the Metroplex or Hill Country. There's no rain in the forecast for any part of the state through the coming week, so the heat and dryness will only build from here.

That's The (HOT) Brief

The ADS-B tax initiative and NBAA's registry fight represent two sides of the same coin, underscoring critical privacy concerns for owners who presumed broadcast data would remain restricted to aviation safety. On the operational side, Embraer's quarterly results demonstrate robust business jet demand despite supply chain timing hurdles. Conflicting traffic data highlights the importance of vetting sources before gauging broader market direction, while LEO connectivity rapidly transitions from a premium feature to an industry baseline. Meanwhile, fuel prices continue their upward trajectory, driven by the ongoing Middle East instability noted here since February, and pilots executing short-field departures must account for the current Heat Advisory and high density altitudes.

The Week in One Sentence: Los Angeles County confirmed it is using ADS-B tracking data to identify and tax more than 1,000 aircraft worth roughly $4 billion, NBAA and other groups pushed the FAA to narrowly limit distribution of aircraft registry data on a parallel privacy front, Embraer posted its best-ever second quarter with a record $34.5 billion backlog and raised full-year guidance, WingX and ARGUS diverged sharply on whether bizjet traffic is cooling or still accelerating, Duncan Aviation expanded its Gogo Galileo LEO connectivity installations, FBO Jet-A rose to $7.73 nationally with the monthly ARGUS average up 70 cents to $8.31, and a Heat Advisory now covers most of North, Central, and East Texas through Monday with heat index values as high as 110 degrees.