The Scissortail Brief | May 4–10, 2026

This week, the NBAA Maintenance Conference wrapped up in New Orleans with more than 1,000 attendees and a maintainer shortage front and center. Embraer posted record Q1 revenue and its strongest executive jet delivery quarter in years, with a tariff-driven margin hit that's going to be a recurring theme for the rest of 2026. Fuel prices ticked up again, and the April average just came in as the highest retail FBO price in a decade. The Kentucky Derby traffic numbers are in. And the FIFA World Cup kicks off June 11 across 16 host cities in three countries, which means operators who haven't locked in aircraft or FBO slots are running short on time.

NBAA: Maintenance Conference Wraps in New Orleans

The 2026 NBAA Maintenance Conference ran May 5-7 at the Ernest N. Morial Convention Center in New Orleans, drawing more than 1,000 registered attendees from 44 states and five countries. Forty-two percent were first-time attendees, which says something about the pipeline coming into the profession.

NBAA President and CEO Ed Bolen opened the conference with a state-of-the-industry address that covered three priorities: safety, the ATC modernization push, and tariffs. On tariffs, Bolen noted that NBAA had worked to restore zero-for-zero civil aviation trade terms with most countries, protecting a marketplace that has historically been dominated by U.S. exports. On ATC modernization, he updated the room on progress in the Modern Skies Coalition effort, noting the FAA has replaced roughly half of the system's aging copper wiring with fiber-optic cable and introduced electronic flight strips at a number of facilities. His message: progress is real, more funding is still needed, and the safety imperative hasn't changed.

The conference's substantive sessions covered the maintainer shortage, AI applications in maintenance operations, safety management systems, aircraft integrity, and workforce development. An FAA Safety Team session on the Dynamic Regulatory System, Service Difficulty Reporting System, and Airworthiness Certification Portal drew standing-room-only attendance, which tells you where the practical interest was.

A session on avionics warranty programs, specifically Honeywell's MSP Avionics and Collins' CASP program, gave attendees a breakdown of what to ask before enrolling, what channel partners can and can't do, and how to take advantage of lesser-known benefits including RVSM reimbursement. For flight departments managing avionics program costs in the current fuel environment, that kind of granular session is worth the conference registration on its own.

The maintainer shortage framing was consistent throughout. Industry projections show hundreds of thousands of aviation maintenance specialists will need to enter the workforce over the next decade to keep pace with demand. The conference's 42% first-time attendee rate is an encouraging data point, but it's a long runway from first conference to certified A&P to experienced turbine tech.

OEM: Embraer Q1 2026

Embraer reported Q1 2026 results on May 8. Revenue came in at $1.447 billion, up 31% year over year and the highest first-quarter total in the company's history. The backlog reached a record $32.1 billion, up 22% year over year, the sixth consecutive quarter of all-time backlog highs.

Executive aviation delivered 29 aircraft in Q1, up 26% from the same period last year. The breakdown: 15 Phenom 300s, one Phenom 100, nine Praetor 500s, and four Praetor 600s. The Phenom 300 was recognized as the world's most-delivered light jet for the 14th consecutive year. Embraer also introduced the Praetor 500E and Praetor 600E during the quarter, the updated variants of its midsize line, and CEO Francisco Gomes Neto said the new models are "selling very well."

The tariff story is the complication. U.S. import tariffs cost Embraer approximately $12 million in the executive aviation segment during Q1 alone, compressing gross margins from 21.8% in Q1 2025 to 15.1% in Q1 2026. Adjusted EBIT margin in the segment fell from 11.3% to 6.0%. CFO Felipe Santana said the company has factored a 10% U.S. tariff assumption into its full-year guidance, which means management doesn't expect near-term relief.

For buyers, the tariff impact has translated into price adjustments on Embraer products. The company's position is that even with those adjustments, its aircraft remain competitive. The full-year guidance calls for 160-170 executive jet deliveries, up from 2025, with production now described as "almost leveled" on the Phenom and Praetor lines. Embraer is also midway through a $90 million capital investment program at its Gavião Peixoto, Brazil and Melbourne, Florida facilities, targeting increased production capacity by 2027.

For advisors and buyers tracking the Phenom and Praetor pre-owned market, Embraer's delivery cadence holding near its targets keeps new supply entering the fleet on schedule, which affects used values in the light and midsize segments.

Fuel: Another Week Up

As of May 10, the national average for Jet-A at U.S. FBOs is $7.94 per gallon across 3,222 reporting locations, per GlobalAir data. That's up from $7.83 the prior week. The Central region remains the lowest at $6.80. Alaska is the high at $8.84.

The DOE's weekly Gulf Coast jet fuel spot price as of May 6 was $3.906 per gallon, which is the wholesale benchmark. The gap between that and what operators are paying at retail FBOs, which runs $6.80 to $8.84 depending on region, reflects handling fees, storage, into-plane service, and supplier margins. Operators buying retail without a contracted fuel program are paying the widest spread.

Prices have approximately doubled since late February, driven by the Middle East supply disruption. There's no timeline being projected for a resolution to the Strait of Hormuz situation that would bring prices back down. For operators running budget models built on pre-February numbers, the gap is now large enough to affect trip-by-trip economics in ways that weren't anticipated at the start of the year. The April monthly average came in as the highest retail FBO Jet-A price recorded in the past decade.

Traffic: Kentucky Derby Numbers Are In

WingX published the Kentucky Derby traffic actuals this week. Louisville's general aviation airports, primarily SDF, KLOU, and KJVY, saw combined private jet arrivals for the week running at roughly 8-10 times the average weekly volume for the region, consistent with historical Derby patterns.

The specifics: SDF historically handles 10% of its annual private jet traffic in Derby week alone, with peak days seeing up to 500 aircraft movements. 2026 followed that pattern. Sentient Jet, which has been the official preferred private aviation partner of the Kentucky Derby for a decade, reported strong demand through the week.

The headline comparison to Masters week: Derby traffic held roughly in line with prior years, unlike the slight year-over-year dip at Augusta. That's one data point against the theory that high-concentration event traffic is softening. Two events, two different readings. The next major events on the calendar are Sun Valley in July and the Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February, both of which attract similar demographics.

Also This Week

Embraer's introduction of the Praetor 500E and Praetor 600E during Q1 is worth a brief standalone note beyond the earnings coverage above. The updates to both aircraft include avionics improvements and cabin refinements. Embraer positioned the launch as part of its strategy to maintain the Praetor family's competitiveness against the Cessna Citation Longitude and Bombardier Challenger 350 in the super-midsize segment. Full specs and delivery timelines are available through Embraer's executive aviation team.

The NBAA White Plains Regional Forum is scheduled for May 20. If you're in the Northeast, it's worth putting on the calendar.

On the Radar: FIFA World Cup 2026

The FIFA World Cup runs June 11 through July 19 across 16 host cities in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. For business aviation, the scale of this event is unlike anything North America has hosted in recent memory. The tournament features 48 teams, 104 matches, and a geographic spread that puts host cities as far as 2,000-plus miles apart, which makes commercial aviation a genuinely unworkable solution for anyone trying to follow the bracket across multiple rounds.

WingX data from prior World Cup tournaments shows the demand pattern at host airports escalates sharply as the tournament progresses. Fuel uplift at host airports runs roughly 1.5 times the normal baseline during group stage, climbs to 1.9 times during quarterfinals, and jumps to 5.2 times during semifinals. The final, which is at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey on July 19, has historically generated fuel uplift surges of 12.9 times the standard activity level at the relevant host airport.

Charter demand on key host-city routes is forecast to rise 200-300% during peak match periods. Round-trip charter pricing between host cities is running $15,000 to $60,000 depending on aircraft type and distance. Special-event FBO parking fees at congested airports are being quoted above $30,000 for peak match days. Clay Lacy has already announced it will waive special event fees for the tournament. Most other operators have not.

For operators, the World Cup creates a demand surge unlike the single-location events we've been tracking all spring. The Masters and the Kentucky Derby concentrate traffic at one airport for one week. The World Cup distributes it across a dozen airports over six weeks, with the concentration spiking hard in the knockout rounds. Aircraft repositioning costs, customs coordination for cross-border legs into Mexico and Canada, and FBO slot availability are all going to become operational variables by mid-June.

For clients planning to attend multiple matches, multi-leg itinerary planning needs to happen now. The U.S. host cities include New York/New Jersey, Los Angeles, Miami, Dallas, Atlanta, Houston, Kansas City, Boston, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Seattle. Teterboro has a 100,000-pound weight limit that excludes many large-cabin jets, which affects routing options for anyone trying to get to MetLife for the final. Addison Airport (ADS) is the practical private arrival for the Dallas games. Opa-locka Executive (OPF) serves Miami.

The window to secure preferred aircraft and competitive pricing is closing. Knockout round availability will go quickly once the bracket clarifies in late June.

That's The Brief

The NBAA Maintenance Conference put the maintainer shortage on the table plainly, which is the right conversation to be having ahead of a decade of projected workforce demand. Embraer's Q1 numbers are strong on volume and revenue, complicated on margins, and the tariff headwind isn't going away. Fuel hit a decade high in April and ticked up again this week. The Derby held steady against the Masters dip. And the World Cup is six weeks out with a demand profile that will stress North American business aviation infrastructure in ways most operators haven't planned for yet.

The Week in One Sentence: The NBAA Maintenance Conference drew 1,000-plus to New Orleans and put the maintainer shortage front and center, Embraer posted record Q1 revenue of $1.447 billion with 29 executive jet deliveries but significant margin compression from U.S. tariffs, FBO Jet-A hit a decade high in April and ticked up to $7.94 per gallon nationally this week, Kentucky Derby traffic held in line with historical patterns, and the FIFA World Cup opens June 11 with charter demand forecast to surge 200-300% on key host-city routes during knockout rounds.