The Scissortail Brief | Week of Feb 23-Mar 1

Mar 2

This week's Brief covers a lot of ground. A historic blizzard shut down the Northeast from Sunday through midweek and left the aviation system working through disruptions well into Wednesday. Over the weekend, U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran triggered retaliatory missile and drone attacks and resulted in broad airspace closures across the Gulf region, with immediate implications for fuel markets and international routing. Domestically, the FAA revoked a Houston charter operator's certificate following a five-year pattern of falsified pilot training records, and separately suspended its own public Part 135 operator spreadsheet pending a data accuracy review. We've got all of it, along with current Jet-A pricing and a note on domestic security posture.

The Blizzard of 2026 Shut Down the Northeast and Business Aviation With It

From February 22 through 24, a historic blizzard dropped two to three feet of snow across much of the Northeast, bringing blizzard conditions, strong winds, and coastal flooding to the entire I-95 corridor. Providence, Rhode Island measured more snow in a single day than fell in the previous two winters combined, with a storm total of 37.9 inches, making it the single biggest snowstorm in the city's recorded history.

For commercial aviation, it was a bloodbath. More than 10,000 U.S. flights were canceled from Sunday through Tuesday, including more than 2,200 cancellations on Tuesday alone, with the heaviest disruption concentrated at Boston Logan and the New York City area airports. LaGuardia saw a near-total shutdown with cancellation rates peaking at 96%.

Business aviation didn't escape it either. FBOs throughout the Northeast were either closed or operating on skeleton crews, de-icing queues at airports that were partially operational stretched dispatch timelines significantly, and the storm is being called the strongest to hit the region in a decade. AccuWeather estimated overall damages and economic losses at $34 to $38 billion.

As late as Wednesday, February 26, the aviation system was still working through more than 2,100 disruptions, with LaGuardia reporting 326 delays, Atlanta over 200, and Chicago over 180. If you had clients trying to move through the Northeast during the back half of the week, you felt it.

The Middle East Situation Escalated Sharply Over the Weekend

What had been a developing situation earlier in the week turned into a full aviation crisis over the weekend of February 28 through March 1. On Saturday February 28, the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iranian government, military, and nuclear targets, killing the Iranian Supreme Leader along with senior leaders of the Iranian Defence Council. Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes targeting Israel and U.S. military bases across Gulf Cooperation Council countries.

The aviation fallout was immediate and broad. As of Monday March 2, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates were among the nations that announced at least partial closures of their airspace, leaving tens of thousands of passengers stranded worldwide. All flights at Dubai International Airport and Al Maktoum International Airport were suspended until further notice. Dubai International is the world's busiest airport for international traffic.

For U.S. business aviation operators with any exposure to the region, this is an active planning situation. If you have clients with regular missions into the Gulf, India, or South Asia, those routings are disrupted now and the timeline for resolution is unclear. Airlines are being forced to reroute around the conflict zone, with some adding hours to flights and consuming significantly more fuel. For business jets with tighter range margins, that math changes fast.

For operators focused on purely domestic or transatlantic flying, the direct routing exposure is limited for now. North Atlantic crossings don't go anywhere near the affected airspace. But the indirect effects, fuel pricing, potential congestion at major European hubs as traffic displaces, and insurance market sentiment, are worth keeping an eye on. We covered the full operational picture in our Middle East piece on the Knowledge Hub earlier this week.

Domestic Security Posture: A Reasonable Time to Take Stock

Given the scale of this week's action against Iran, it's a reasonable time to revisit your operation's security posture. Not out of panic, but because that's what disciplined operators do when the threat environment shifts.

Iranian retaliation doctrine historically includes asymmetric responses, and U.S. aviation infrastructure has come up in threat intelligence discussions during past escalation cycles. The FBI and DHS have issued advisories to the general aviation community in similar situations before, reminding operators to be vigilant around aircraft security, facility access, and unusual activity near flight operations.

As of this writing, no publicly released advisories specific to general or business aviation have been issued in connection with the current situation, but that doesn't mean advisories haven't gone out through restricted channels. If you have access to HSIN and haven't checked it recently, now is the time. If you're having login trouble, the HSIN help desk is at 1-866-430-0162. Your local FBI field office and TSA regional representative are also worth a call if you have those relationships. If something has been issued to the operator community through restricted channels, those are the contacts who'll know about it.

NBAA's security team is another good resource here. If a broad advisory has gone to the GA community, they'll either have it or know about it.

Beyond checking for formal advisories, it's worth making sure your operation's TSA-approved security program is current, that crew security training is not being treated as a checkbox right now, and that your FBO and facility awareness protocols are active. These aren't dramatic measures. They're basic operational discipline, and this week is a good reminder of why that discipline exists.

Jet-A Fuel Prices: Where Things Stand, and Where They're Headed

Prices were already moving before the weekend's escalation. The national average cost of a gallon of Jet-A in February reached $6.73, up 22 cents compared to January, with the largest increase in the Southwest region, up 34 cents month over month. The only region that saw a decrease was the Western Pacific, down 2 cents.

Here's the regional picture as of March 1, averaging data across more than 3,200 reporting FBO locations nationwide. The national average is sitting at $6.36 per gallon. The FAA Central region is reporting the lowest average at $5.67 per gallon. Alaska is at the top at $8.08 per gallon. For operators based in the South Central and Gulf Coast markets, you're at or slightly below the national average. Northeast operators flying out of metro New York and Boston FBOs are running meaningfully higher, and that's before accounting for the storm recovery surcharges some FBOs imposed during the blizzard.

That's before accounting for what happens next. Oil prices are expected to spike, with the scale and duration hinging on whether the U.S.-Iran conflict escalates or eases quickly. Analysts are warning that a protracted conflict risks disrupting up to 20% of global supply and potentially pushing Brent crude toward $100 a barrel. The Middle East is a key exporter of middle distillates, which includes jet fuel and diesel, to global markets, and jet fuel disruption is expected to follow crude with a slight lag but be more persistent. The fuel number you're planning trips against today could look meaningfully different in two weeks.

The fuel number you're planning trips against today could look meaningfully different in two weeks.

The StarFlite Certificate Revocation

The week's biggest domestic regulatory story. The FAA issued an emergency order revoking the Air Carrier Certificate of StarFlite Aviation of Houston, alleging that management personnel knowingly falsified training records for at least ten pilots over a five-year period, resulting in at least 170 revenue flights conducted by unqualified crews. Our full breakdown of what the Part 135 training requirements actually are and what the revocation means for aircraft owners on a charter certificate is the featured piece on the Knowledge Hub this week. If you have an aircraft on a certificate, it's worth your time.

The FAA Suspended Its Own Part 135 Operator Spreadsheet

This one didn't get the attention it deserved given everything else happening this week, but it's worth noting. The FAA has temporarily deactivated its public Part 135 operator and aircraft spreadsheet to resolve data accuracy issues. The most recent version of the list contained roughly twice the number of aircraft as prior versions, while still omitting major operators including NetJets, Wheels Up, FlyExclusive, and Jet Linx Aviation.

The FAA has promoted this list for years as a consumer transparency tool. The fact that it can't currently be verified is a meaningful gap for passengers and owners who rely on it to confirm a charter operator's certificate status and fleet. We'll note when it comes back online and whether the accuracy issues have been resolved.

The Tariff Window on Cross-Border Aircraft Transactions

Earlier in the week, before the Middle East situation consumed most of the oxygen in the room, there was a significant development for anyone buying or selling aircraft internationally. The Supreme Court struck down the use of IEEPA for tariff implementation in a 6-3 ruling on February 20, effectively returning the market to a zero-for-zero reciprocal tariffs regime for aircraft, engines, and parts. Within hours, President Trump invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, imposing a temporary 10% global import surcharge starting February 24, though aircraft and parts are currently exempt.

The window is real, but the policy environment is unsettled, and the process for seeking refunds on tariffs already paid has not been established. If you have a cross-border acquisition in progress, this is a conversation to be having with your aviation attorney right now, ideally before the situation changes again.

GAMA Numbers and Market Activity

GAMA's 2025 annual report showed preliminary aircraft deliveries totaling $35.7 billion, up 14.6% from 2024, with manufacturers shipping 854 business jets, up 11.8% year over year. GAMA chair and Textron Aviation CEO Ron Draper called it the highest billings figure ever recorded in the report's history. The backlog stands at $7.7 billion. Private jet departures globally were up 3% for the week ending February 22, partly driven by a nearly 40% surge in business jet activity around Northern Italy during the Milan-Cortina Winter Olympics. The broader 2026 forecast from ARGUS calls for private aviation hours up 1.6% compared to last year.

That’s The Brief!

The Week in One Sentence

The Northeast dug out from a generational blizzard, fuel prices were already climbing before a major escalation in the Middle East shut down some of the world's busiest aviation hubs over the weekend, the FAA can't verify its own charter operator list, and every operator with international exposure is replanning missions this morning.